Disagree on Runaway Slave as you have run off into the random wilds.
Maybe on the "not all who wander are lost" and "Abandoned camp" as those are temporary places that may have picked locations for a variety of reasons from long term to its dark and they camped their quickly. Water should be close within a few tiles but usually is. ~3 World map tiles
High probability for the Lonely settler as they invested into buildings. Water by spring or other water should be within same (spring) or next world map tiles.